Saudi Aramco Warns of “Catastrophic” Consequences as Gulf Shipping Crisis Deepens

Saudi Aramco issued a stark warning Thursday about catastrophic consequences for global oil markets as the shipping crisis in and around the Strait of Hormuz deepened, with Iranian forces striking additional vessels and export terminals. Brent crude climbed back toward $100 a barrel as the effective closure of the strait — now in its third week — continued to remove a fifth of global seaborne energy from circulation. The warning from the world’s largest oil producer added weight to growing concerns about the durability of global supply chains.
Iran struck merchant vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, including the Thai-registered Mayuree Naree, with three crew members reported trapped. Iraq shut all its oil export ports after tankers in adjacent waters were attacked. Oman cleared its Mina Al Fahal export terminal following drone strikes on a neighboring port, further reducing the region’s ability to move crude to global markets.
Brent rose 9% to $100.29 a barrel on Thursday before retreating to $98, still up around 6%. West Texas Intermediate climbed 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has surged from $60 at the year’s start, reaching $119 earlier in the week before partially retreating on ambiguous signals from the White House. The combination of strategic threats and physical supply loss has created an exceptionally volatile market.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude from reserves held by 32 member nations. The US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, to be delivered over approximately 120 days. President Trump said the release would help reduce prices as the US continues its campaign against Iran.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 a barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi declined 1.2%, and European gas prices added 7.7%.