A Conditional Peace: Each Step of Gaza Deal Depends on the Last

The emerging peace deal for Gaza is a fragile, conditional structure where each step depends entirely on the successful completion of the one before it. This sequential design is intended to build trust but also means the entire agreement could collapse at any point.
The first condition, which unlocks everything else, is the release of all Israeli hostages. According to the framework described as “90 per cent done,” this action by Hamas will trigger a reciprocal Israeli military withdrawal to the “yellow line.” One side will not act until the other commits.
According to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, this initial exchange is “priority number one.” Its success is the prerequisite for any further discussions. The current technical talks are designed to ensure this first step is executed flawlessly, as any failure here would terminate the process.
The next conditional phase involves the future of Gaza. Hamas has agreed “in principle” to discuss a post-war plan, but this is contingent on the ceasefire holding. Furthermore, President Donald Trump has made it clear that any long-term peace is conditional on Hamas ceding power.
This step-by-step arrangement creates a high-stakes, high-reward path to peace. While it allows for verification at each stage, it also means that the deal is only as strong as its weakest link. The world now waits to see if the first condition—the hostage release—will be met.